He’s not Sidney Crosby, let’s get that out of the way. Crosby is a better scorer and better offensively, but it is my belief that Toews is better defensively.
It’s actually my belief that Toews is the best center defensively. And while he could be better on offense – though that’s harder now with an aging Hossa and likely a rookie Motte – his defensive ability is astounding.
So, this is a statistical look at how Toews is that second-best center. He’s also a should-be constant Selke winner, but that will be proven as well. The other two centers we will look at are his Selke competition – Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron, as well as the two second best offensive centers – John Tavares and Tyler Seguin.
Let’s defend these choices. Seguin and Jamie Benn are pure offense on a team that’s pure offense. Those two put up more points than any other wing/center pair, and together can use any second wing and make themselves great. Tavares is also pure offense, and leadership. He’s in charge of the vast majority of the Islanders’ scoring, and when he was shutdown in the playoffs the Islanders’ scoring was shut down.
Kopitar won the Selke last year and has two cups to his name, playing on a team without much offensive help (except for perhaps Jeff Carter) and where his two best teammates are Drew Doughty and Jonathon Quick (who, as I’ll show in my goaltenders article, is a slightly above average netminder). Patrice Bergeron is the second best defensive center, is as shutdown as Toews, and keeps up with Toews in most categories. However, Toews has three cups to Bergeron’s 1, and playoff clutch will be factored in.
Let’s start with the offensive centers:
Seguin’s career stat line: 426 games played, 163/192/355, 70+/-, 11.8 shot%, 50% FO, 202 takeaways/246 giveaways
Seguin’s doing really well and he’s only 6 years into his career. His PPG is at .833 and he’s able to score on the power play as much as he scores on 5 on 5. He could be converting at a higher rate on his shot percentage, but in today’s NHL 11% is more than enough.
But here’s where Seguin’s fault lies: he won in 2010, when he was a rookie, but his was not the largest role. He has not steered his team past the second round, and while that’s a fault of his defense, his health, and his goaltending, until he does so he’s not to be considered a top 3 center. It’s why Connor McDavid is not in my top 10 yet.
Tavares: 510 GP, 207/264/471, -34 +/-, 13% S%, 51.1% FO, 474 TA/484 GA
Tavares is definitively better than Seguin, and he’s only one season ahead. His PPG is .923, but he’s been in command of the Islanders longer and has led them to the same round of the playoffs as the Stars with Seguin.
But here’s the difference between Seguin and Tavares – Benn might be the best player on the Stars. Tavares is the for sure best player on the Islanders.
Toews: 641 GP, 251/313/564, 187 +/-, 15.1 S%, 57.1% FO, 536 TA/213 GA
Alright, so Toews is definitively more impressive than either Tavares or Seguin. Taking a look at just his takeaways vs giveaways, he has better puck control than either of the younger two, and has been better able to convert on shots.
Toews is also given the opportunity to play on the penalty kill, which means he has 29 short handed points in his career. He’s also captained two cup winning teams and has a Conn Smythe to his name for a third team.
His PPG, .874, is lower than Tavares’s but higher than Seguin’s. He’s able to get the puck to a scorer or get it in the net, and he’s not given the credit for it that Tavares or Seguin are. Maybe that’s because he’s too busy covering on defense as well.
Defensive Centers:
This is where Toews faces more competition. The better you are at defense, the better you are as a forward. Anybody in the NHL can score points – Brandon Mashinter had two goals last year. It takes a special breed of center to play both offense and defense well, and that’s why the Selke recognizes them (although they should be honoring wings as well, and its a shame Hossa never won a Selke).
Toews’s offensive stat line again: 641 GP, 251/313/564, 187 +/-, 15.1 S%, 57.1% FO, 536 TA/213 GA. His advanced stat line: Corsi: 56.6 (3.5 relative), Fenwick: 56.3% (3 relative), On Ice Save %: 91.4, Zone Starts 59.9/40.1 offensive
What his advanced stat line tells us is that when Toews gets on the ice, more often than not the Hawks are in the offensive zone, which tells us a few things. 1. Joel Quenneville likes to play Toews in the offensive zone 2. When Toews is on the ice, the Hawks will control the puck more often than not.
His relative Corsi and Fenwick both support this. Relative Corsi is how much better the team does when he’s on the ice. The difference between Corsi and Fenwick is shots blocked.
To put more perspective into the advanced stat lines, let’s look at the other two.
Bergeron: 820 games played, 238/380/618, 122 +/-, 10.3 S%, 58.3% FO, 390 TA/205 GA Advanced: 57.2 C (6.4), 57.2 F (7), oiS% 92.1, ZS: 45.4/54.6 defensive
Kopitar: 764 GP, 243/441/684, 79+/-, 12.4 S%, 51.7% FO, 420 TA/464 GA Advanced: 55.7 C (2.8), 55.4 F (3), oiS% 91, ZS: 52.6/47.4 offensive
So we can take Kopitar out of this competition altogether. It seems that the only way he could win the Selke is that Toews had a down year (he did last year) and the voters got tired of the same old winners (they did with the Norris). This is not to belittle Kopitar’s accomplishments, he’s got two cups and he’s been great all around. He’s just not in the same league as the other two.
If you’re highly into advanced stats, then I can understand why you would put Bergeron first. That’s the only reason. The eye test, Toews is better. .874 PPG vs. .753. Three cups vs. one. 5 points higher shot conversion. Bergeron beats Toews in faceoff percentage and in less giveaways over a longer time (by like one or two years). Toews takes away the puck more.
So let’s get into advanced stats, where this shapes up to be a competition. I’m gonna start with On Ice Save Percentage. This can be explained by Bergeron having the same elite goaltender for longer. Rask has been in the league longer than Crawford, and Toews has had to put up with Antii Niemi, Marty Turco, Cristobal Huet, and a host of other lesser netminders.
Zone starts can be explained a variety of ways, including how a coach plays a player – Quenneville may not put Bergeron into the defensive zone nearly as much. It can also be explained by how much time a puck spends in the offensive zone and defensive zone. If the Bruins can’t clear, Bergeron will get into the defensive zone more often.
And that’s why it boils down to truly Corsi and Fenwick, and since it’s the same number just with shot blocks being factored into Corsi, let’s just look at Corsi. Bergeron’s: 57.2 C (6.4), Toews’s: 56.6 (3.5 relative).
Bergeron’s stat is more impressive not only because it’s larger – he’s controlling the puck more, and getting more shots, missed shots, goals, and shot blocks off than Toews is. And he’s doing it from more defensive zone starts. And he’s doing it far more than anybody else on his team, and while it can also be explained by having the only two defensemen when he’s starting.
Which explains why he’s able to win so many Selkes. But Toews is better offensively, and Toews makes his goalie better. He’s got 1 Selke, but he should have many more.
I also think that Toews’s takeaways and offensive ability should factor in more, but that might just be me. And just because he’s not being used in the defensive zone as much – there’s a full Hawks line devoted to that – doesn’t mean he’s not as impressive as Bergeron. In fact he may be more so because he’s starting in the defensive zone that much with that defensive fourth line.
Results: Toews is better at the eye test than Bergeron, and better offensively, but Bergeron’s Selke wins make sense. Toews overall, however, is the better center.
Now, let’s take a look at Sidney Crosby vs. Toews just to make sure that Toews is the second best center and not potentially the best, as some have asserted.
Toews: 641 GP, 251/313/564, 187 +/-, 15.1 S%, 57.1% FO, 536 TA/213 GA. His advanced: 56.6 C (3.5), 56.3% F (3), oiS%: 91.4, ZS: 59.9/40.1 offensive
Sid the Kid: 707 GP, 338/600/938, 148 +/-, 14.4 S%, 52.6% FO, 292 TA/492 GA. Advanced: 54 C (4.2), 54.6 F (4.3), oiS%: 90.9, ZS: 54.2/45.8 offensive
Yeah. No. Second best is perfectly fine. Crosby is just so dominant in the eye test that no matter how much better Toews is after you factor out the points, those points is just power washing Crosby to the top. 600 assists since 2005. There’s a reason people call him the new Gretzky.
My top 5 centers then:
- Sidney Crosby
- Jonathon Toews
- Patrice Bergeron
- John Tavares
- Anze Kopitar