The Lightning two years ago made the Stanley Cup Finals, but lost this year to a Chicago Blackhawks team looking to earn their dynasty. This year, they entered the Eastern Conference Final rearing to return, but lost Ben Bishop, having Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman already absent, and when the two re-entered they weren’t the same, and the Penguins took advantage.
This offseason, the Lightning face monumental decisions as they pursue a title of their own having lost to the eventual champions twice. This is a team that should be a contender for the next few years, if the past few are any indication.
The Lightning, like the Penguins, like the Sharks, are one of very few teams with not a lot to change. They have decisions to make only because of their success, but like the other teams that make successful runs, they face the restriction that is the cap.
1. Steven Stamkos
The Lightning made their way to the ECF this year without Stamkos. They came up short, in part because of it, however. The Lightning’s defense was simply better than the Penguins’, but it was the offense where they came up short.
Having Stamkos aboard would help with that, and he has been a successful captain for the Lightning and continues to be one of the league’s best centers and forwards.
However, the Lightning may have problems signing him, and here’s why:
A) Cap. The Lightning are rapidly approaching the cap limit, and while Stamkos should and would likely take a discount to remain with this Tampa team, that still puts the Lightning 8 mil closer to the cap, and that’s money Tampa could spend on Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman, Ben Bishop, and other necessary players who become free agents in the next two years.
B) The Center Problem. Stamkos is a natural center, and would prefer to play in this position, but the Lightning have been putting him at wing, where he is capable of playing, but not happy. Stamkos could easily leave to a place where he is able to play center, including Detroit, Toronto, and Buffalo. If the Lightning are not going to play Stamkos in his happiest position, it may be time to part ways, especially if the Lightning believe they have the existing center depth to replace him.
C) Success Without Him. The ability to get to the ECF without Stamkos shows that the Lightning have built well enough around him that they could potentially remove him and stay standing as a contender. While the Lightning weren’t able to win that ECF, they took the hottest, and maybe best team in the league this year in the Penguins to 7, and while the Lightning will only get healthier, the Penguins, above the cap, must trade someone, and it will likely cost them a chance at repeating. In the end, the Lightning were a game away from a Stanley Cup without Stamkos. They were two away from a Stanley Cup with him (although this may be oversimplifying, that 2014-15 Blackhawks team was/is better than the 2015-16 Penguins)
In the end, maybe parting ways is best for the Lightning and for Stamkos, but if the Lightning are able to keep him at a discount, it’s not a bad decision.
2. Lots of Extensions
The Lightning have a plethora of free agents over the next two years, including some of their most important players. These include: JT Brown, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov, Cedric Pacquette, Jonathon Drouin, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman, and Andrej Sustr. That’s ten free agents that must be or should be considered for renewal. Yzerman’s got some work to do.
These players each bring something different to the team, and this list does not even include Steven Stamkos. The problem is, five are up this year, and five are up next year for new contracts. Fortunately, out of these ten, six are free agents. Another fortunate thing, the Lightning have a lot of cap space. Around 20 million if the cap is 73 million, and 45 million next year if the cap goes up even 2 million (it should go up more if Trudeau manages to lift the Canadian dollar. Trudeau should be able to. Believe in Trudeau).
An unfortunate thing – four of these players (Johnson, Kucherov, Hedman, and Palat) could demand contracts of 6 million plus. That’s a lot of their cap space gone, but only one – Kucherov – is up for renewal this year. The rest are up when there is more space available. There are other players like Jonathon Drouin and Alex Killorn who will be important to keep around but could also ask for larger (and yet, perhaps, smaller than 5 million) contracts and it would be matched by multiple teams in the league.
If the Lightning spend 24 million on less than half of this list, however, they will not have enough space to keep around players like Jonathon Marchessault and Nikita Nesterov, important to preserving the depth of the team, and depth is what makes a team successful.
On the flip side, if they have to spend lots of money on their team, it means they’ve been successful. It can also be remedied by successful drafting, and so Yzerman will be facing another test.
And this list does not include Steven Stamkos, if he’s re-signed, even at a manageable deal, this team looks a lot different.
Oh, and by the way, to showcase the necessity of these 10 free agents, in this year’s regular season, they had 330 points. That amount of points will cost you a lot of money.
3. The Goal Decision
Next year, both Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy come off the books. If the Lightning re-sign both, one will be taken in the expansion draft. And this leaves the Lightning with a decision to make: who is their goaltender of the future.
Vasilevskiy is 21. Bishop is 29 with much success. Either would bring back amazing value if traded, and is the recommended route should the Lightning acknowledge that their team only needs one, and that either could do the job, entering the season with only one.
Yzerman faces a decision – trade one of these two goaltenders, or re-sign them only to lose them in expansion? Get a return, or allow them to walk in free agency. The choice really is simple – they must trade one of these two, either now or at the deadline. And they will get something great in return.
It’s Yzerman’s choice to determine who to trade. But its our job to inform.
Ben Bishop posted a 2.06/.926 on his way to a Vezina nomination, one of the two (out of three) who deserved that nomination this year (yes I’m still bitter about Quick getting it because it’s QUICK. I will die defending Corey Crawford and Schneider as better nominations). In the playoffs, he posted a 1.86/.939. Those are excellent numbers in the playoffs, and if he had stayed healthy maybe the Eastern Conference Final goes differently. Bishop is a great choice to stay, but if he’s traded out of conference, he will net the team one of the best trade returns in recent years and will be a popular choice on the trade market.
Vasilevskiy had a 2.76/.910. He played significantly less games than Bishop, but with these numbers, it’s not hard to see why. He’s still maturing, and as he gets older he will get stronger, wiser, and better. He had a 2.76/.925 in the playoffs, and got the Lightning seven games against the Penguins. He will get better, but he remains unproven, and has not played a full season at starter and has not started in a series yet – in both the ECF and the Stanley Cup when he played, he started after Bishop was injured. He remains an unproven but young commodity, and would net the Lightning a fine return, but not nearly as good as Bishop, simply because his numbers did not matchup and because he remains unproven and unsuccessful in the playoffs.
If I’m Yzerman, I’m waiting to the deadline and giving each goaltender equal opportunity to prove themselves. When it comes down to it, this could be a cap decision as well, costing them one of the better goaltenders in the league in Bishop.
4. Drafting
This team must draft well going forward. Yeah, that’s it.
Yzerman’s team has been largely successful over the past few years, while the Cup remains in their future, they must find a way to get there through cap management, and will lose significant players on their way. The Lightning’s castoffs will rival that of the best teams in the league, like the Penguins and the Blackhawks.