Jaromir Jagr is an all-time great. At third in scoring all time, he’s only behind the greatest player of all time Mr. Wayne Gretzky, and his longtime center Mark Messier. He’s one of the players with the most longevity, right behind the legend Gordie Howe. He’s scored points like a maniac into his forties, and while he will never sign a multi-year deal again, Jagr could continue to sign one year deals for maybe five more years, he still works himself and plays like a 32 year old, if not younger. The man is pure iron, the definition of heart, and he won the Masterton for being able to play like he’s still in his youth at a time where the vast majority of players have been retired for a long time.
This is a man who has keys to the practice arena and to the workout space of the Florida Panthers because he’s there before anyone else and he’s there after anyone else. His life is hockey, he breathes the sport. It’s not his passion – it’s his singular focus.
In the fall of 2008, at the age of 36, Jaromir Jagr left the NHL. He went to the KHL, closer to his home in the Czech Republic, and much like Pavel Datsyuk this year, it was assumed – but unlike Datsyuk, never outright stated – that Jaromir Jagr would retire from there. But everyone was wrong. And ever since Jagr has returned to the NHL, a major question in the league, and the question about Jagr, was “what if he never left for the KHL”. Well, it’s the offseason. I’m bored. Let’s see.
Jagr’s KHL stats follow as such:
08-09: 55 games played. 25/28/53. 11.4 shooting percentage.
playoffs, 9 games played. 4/5/9. 12.9 shot%.
09-10: 51 games played. 22/20/42. 14.4 shot%.
playoffs, 3 games played, 1/1/2. shot% 12.5.
10-11: 49 games played, 19/31/50. 11.4 shot%.
playoffs, 14 games played, 2/7/9. shot% 3.9.
These stats may not correlate, which is why we look at other stars that have made the jump, namely Artemi Panarin, who has played in the KHL more recently.
Panarin’s stats:
09-10: 20 games played, 1/8/9. 4.0%.
10-11: 40 games played, 5/16/21. 8.6%.
Skipping ahead to his most recent years,
13-14: 51 games played, 20/20/40. 15.2%.
playoffs, 4 games played, 0/0/0, 0%.
14-15: 54 games played, 26/36/62. 16.1%
playoffs, 20 games played, 5/15/20. 10.2%
His first year in the NHL, Panarin’s stat line read like this:
80 games played, 30/47/77. 16%.
So what we take away from Panarin’s stat line is that over a longer season, more points are likely to be scored, and that even though the KHL is the 2nd (or 3rd) best league in the world, there is still significant talent existing there, and the stats would not jump too much – looking at his last year in the KHL versus his first in the NHL, Panarin’s shot percentage stayed the same, and his points, while going up, took a hit in terms of points per game, where it fell from 1.14 to .962. Expecting the same of Jagr, this means that Jagr would still score a significant amount of points, especially when looking at his surrounding years.
The two years before and after Jagr left for the KHL, his stat lines were:
06-07: 30/66/96, 9.3%, 82 games
07-08: 25/46/71, 10%, 82 games
11-12: 19/35/54, 11.2%, 73 games
12-13 (lockout shortened, traded midseason): 16/19/35, 11.6%, 45 games
Like Panarin, Jagr’s point per game took a hit both in the KHL, and when he returned. But when he got his first full season back, with the New Jersey Devils in 2013-14, he became closer to his usual self, posting 24/43/67, 10.4%, in 82 games. At 41 years old.
So we can assume, if he played those 3 seasons in the NHL, assuming he had average (for him) seasons, he’s posting a stat line of 25/48/73, 10.5%, over 82 game seasons, with the first two seasons likely being over this stat line and the third likely being under, as he got closer to 40. That 39 age season would probably be close to identical to the 2013-14 season.
This means that if Jaromir Jagr had stayed in the NHL, the 82 games versus the 50 some odd he played in the KHL would probably taken an additional toll on his body, and he would most likely have retired by now, but just one season in the NHL more and he’s in second for points, ahead of Mark Messier – as it stands currently, Jagr will surpass him with a lower end season, he’s just 25 points behind.
If Jagr had stayed in the NHL instead of going to Serbia, he would be currently only behind Wayne Gretzky in terms of points, and Gordie Howe in terms of longevity, even if he retired this past offseason, or the one before. That’s not bad company to keep, and Jagr will be a first ballot hall of famer when his time does come. And when it does, expect him to go into the hall of fame the second place player in terms of points. Whether that makes him the second best player of all time is a different question, but the question to ours is that Jagr would be ahead of all the players you could conceivably compare him to.